There was a time just a few weeks ago when investors were frustrated with Bitcoin [BTC] for not being able to stay above $45,000. However, at press time, most investors were relieved that the king coin was somehow over $30k as it traded at the price of $30,424.97, after increasing by 0.41% in the past day.
So, is the Bitcoin landscape all sunshine and roses or more thunderclouds and thorns? Here’s what some metrics revealed, according to one analyst.
Betting on Bitcoin?
Fidelity’s Global Macro director Jurrien Timmer shared his favorite metrics and presented both promising and concerning signs regarding Bitcoin.
“The BTC/gold ratio is now resting on major support, in the form of the 2017 high as well as the 2021 low. At the same time, the detrended Bollinger Band shows that the ratio is now at 2 standard deviations below trend, which is a level that has contained the last 3 declines…”
Indeed, at press time, the Bollinger Bands were wide apart, indicating strong volatility. However, the candles had broken through the lower band and were slowly turning green as they trended slightly upwards once more. This indicates a possibly oversold asset seeing buying demand once again.
Adding to that, Timmer revealed that HODLers were doing what HODLers do best – holding tight to their king coins in spite of painful price drops. Timmer stated that the amount of Bitcoin HODLed for over a decade was still around 13%.
It’s interesting (but not surprising) that the 60% decline in Bitcoin has not deterred the HODLers. The number of Bitcoin held for more than 10 years is holding in steady at 13%. /7 pic.twitter.com/ksibTyBOhT
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) May 16, 2022
But that doesn’t mean the exchanges are getting a break. In fact, CoinShares’ latest flows report revealed that there were Bitcoin inflows to the value of approximately $299 million.
“Bear” with me for a moment
Some bullish investors are insistent that the crypto market is still in a bullish stage – but one person doesn’t share their views. This was none other than the creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, PlanB. The pseudonymous analyst theorized that though he had been hoping for a bull market in 2022, he felt it was “clear” that a bear market had started as early as 2021.
Dec 2021 I was still hoping for a 2nd leg of the bull market. But in Q1 2022 it became clear that this bitcoin bull market was over. We entered a bear market since Apr 2021 peak (yes ATH was Nov 2021). Now we are creating a bottom. Then a new bull market will start. BTC cycles. pic.twitter.com/cPpAnNCklx
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 16, 2022